There has been no severe weather in Orange County since my last post and a tranquil period of non-severe weather will continue for at least the next week.  Areas to our north will see possible severe thunderstorms later today, but if a few stray storms reach Orange County, they will be non-severe by the time they arrive.  As I already reported in my last post, I will update when the next threat of severe weather arises.

4/20/12 23:30 update…

Scattered rain showers will begin overnight and continue throughout the day Saturday. With high temps in the low 70s, there is also a chance of isolated, non-severe thunderstorms as a weak warm front lifts and a weak cold front passes. Following the passage of the cold front, showers will become more frequent as it transitions into steady rain by late Saturday night.  Steady rain, heavy at times, will continue throughout the day Sunday and into Monday.

Significant rainfall totals will be seen. Up to 2″ of rain is nearly certain, but some areas could see up to 4-5″ of rain with the heavier bands.  Due to the prolonged dry conditions, we can handle this much rain.  Creeks, streams and rivers will have no problem handling this much rain runoff due to low water levels.  However, some ponding on roadways and minor urban flooding is possible when the rain becomes heavy.  Any standing rainwater will eventually soak into the dry ground or run off into streams and creeks.  Therefore, significant flooding is unlikely.

Even with this much rain, we are not out of the woods with the fire danger just yet.  It would be more beneficial to receive lesser amounts of rain broken up at different times.  This much rain causes runoff instead of a slow rain which could soak into the brush.  It will significantly help with the recent fire danger, but could resume if we do not see more slower, soaking rains over the next few weeks to come.

4/13/12 12:15pm update…

Due to the precipitation deficits from the prolonged dry spell throughout the winter and the beginning of spring, the U.S. Drought Monitor yesterday declared a “D2″ severe drought across portions of southeastern New York, and a “D1″ moderate drought over portions of the lower Hudson Valley and NYC.

As of yesterday, mean areal precipitation totals over the last two month period were below normal.  The departure from normal ranged from 4″ to 6″.

As of the beginning of April, the National Weather Service reports normal to above normal soil conditions.  But with the recent dry conditions for the past several months and more dry conditions forecasted for at least the next two weeks, soil moisture conditions are expected to steadily decrease.

In addition, stream flow conditions continue to remain below normal across southeast NY. Reservoir levels across the NYC water supply system were reported at being approximately 6% below normal.  However, ground water levels varied across the region.  Some wells reported water levels within the normal range, but others already reported being below normal.

The Climate Prediction Center outlook for the month of April calls for above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation.  However, I believe this forecast to be slightly askew and precipitation totals are highly likely to remain well below the normal levels by the end of the month.

We will also have to keep an eye on the fire danger.  Red Flag Warnings (for fire danger) have been posted across the Hudson Valley on several occasions over the past few weeks.  At one point, the national Storm Prediction Center placed southern NY under a “critical risk” of wild fires – the same day of the massive forest fire on Long Island.  With no significant rain in the near-term forecast, the risk of brush fires will remain elevated, especially on days with low humidity and breezy conditions.

Will update on the drought conditions for May toward the end of this month – and continue to post on severe weather as needed.  However, no severe weather is likely across the Hudson Valley in the near future.

Tranquil conditions will continue with no severe weather to forecast in the near future. The only hazardous weather is the dry spell and possibility of brush fires on days with low humidity and breezy conditions. Temps will rebound to the low to mid 60s by the weekend. All snowfall for the Hudson Valley appears to be done for the season, with a slight possibility of 1 or 2 more systems bringing a very light slushy mix to the extreme higher elevations (ie, Hunter Mountain). Will continue to post as needed when severe weather begins approaching.

3/25/12 00:30 update…

A slow moving low front will bring periods of scattered showers to the Hudson Valley overnight and into late morning on Saturday. As the front moves out, clouds will slowly break apart throughout the day with highs climbing to around 60°.

A cold front will pass through on Monday, bringing breezy conditions with gusts to 30 mph and high temps only around 50°.

Although temps may seem cool, it’ll still be above normal for this time of year.  Over the last two weeks, daytime temps reached 80° twice, just as Dave Schwartz correctly predicted.  That was extreme, record-breaking warmth for March.  Highs of 50° are still above normal for this time of year.

Throughout the week, however, high pressure will build and daily high temps will gradually rise into the upper 50s by the end of the week.  On Friday, a warm front moves through, just in time to bring 60° weather back for next weekend.

I would like to take a minute to welcome aboard the latest member of our weather team.

Dave Schwartz, who worked at The Weather Channel from 1985-2009, will be writing weather columns on Page 2 of The Orange County Post Sentinel, as well as writing forecasts on our web page.  He was a fixture on The Weather Channel for many years and will be an asset to our team.

Growing up as children, we watched Dave because of his humor.  As adults, we learned from him when he explained weather situations.  His on-camera techniques were rare and personable, not like the dry content that current anchors read strictly from teleprompters.

Here is a clip of Dave…  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lkWcU4Vvis&feature=related

We look forward to having you aboard, Dave!

Wed 3/14 11:35 update…

Just as I forecasted, non-severe thunderstorms developed late last night.  They remained well north of the area (including Greene, Columbia, Rensellaer and Albany Counties) and our fans from those areas reported to us that the storms were lighting up the skies.

More unseasonably warm weather will tease the Hudson Valley with an early taste of summer, with highs today once again climbing into the low 70s.  This is like mid May. Temps here are nearly the same as they are in Myrtle Beach right now.  Expect more sunny skies with highs in the mid 60s tomorrow.

Friday’s temps will bring us a reality check and make it feel more like late April than mid May. Highs will only reach 60 degrees as cloudy skies prevail with scattered rain showers.

But just in time for the weekend, sunshine returns and temps climb back into the mid 60s. Another round of 70+ degree temps will return for Monday and Tuesday.

Mon 3/12/12 20:15 update…

Temps today topped out at an unseasonable 73° with light winds at 14 mph.  Mild weather will continue, but only after two brief periods of showers and a chance of an isolated thundershower.

Clouds will begin moving into the Hudson Valley tonight as a weak warm front approaches. The threat of showers will begin around midnight and end by sunrise.

Clouds will begin clearing from west to east during the morning Tuesday, giving way to partial sunshine. Good mixing will allow temps to rise to the low 70s across much of the area. A weak cold front will approach later in the day. If enough sunshine develops before it arrives, the mixing may allow a few showers and non-severe thundershowers to develop in some areas of the Hudson Valley ahead of the front. This would occur during the late afternoon hours as weak surface-based instability combines with 500mb temps cooling to near -20C.  However, weak surface convergence will limit coverage. Therefore, any thunderstorms or thundershowers that do develop will be non-severe in nature.

In the wake of these two fronts, sunny and mild conditions will prevail with highs in the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday and the upper 50s on Thursday.

Stay tuned to Page 2 of The O.C. Post Sentinel’s Friday edition for a major announcement regarding welcoming aboard a new member to our weather team who is nationally renowned and a highly distinguished member of the weather community.